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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 2007
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: used in WA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
2. 340 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
3. 460 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
4. 535 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5. 655 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6. 755 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
7. 920 DDs after biofix: 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
8. 980 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
9. 1160 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
10. 1480 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
11. 1605 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
12. 1765 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
13. 1940 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
14. 2120 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
15. 2200 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
16. 2300 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF22700 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Blue Mt Cherry OR Lat:45.9567 Long:-118.4367 Elev:869
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 76.00 49.90 0.00 12.95 13.0 * START *
4 11 79.60 46.00 0.00 13.39 26.3
4 12 69.00 50.90 0.01 9.95 36.3
4 13 64.90 48.30 0.02 6.83 43.1
4 14 63.60 43.90 0.03 5.24 48.4
4 15 67.20 44.30 0.01 6.99 55.4
4 16 70.80 39.30 0.00 7.80 63.2
4 17 76.90 38.10 0.00 10.39 73.5
4 18 80.60 39.10 0.00 12.29 85.8
4 19 84.30 44.00 0.00 15.15 101.0
4 20 83.20 43.60 0.00 14.51 115.5
4 21 80.10 53.70 0.00 16.90 132.4
4 22 77.90 52.90 0.00 15.40 147.8
4 23 70.50 51.20 0.00 10.85 158.6
4 24 66.00 51.00 0.00 8.50 167.1
4 25 65.00 43.20 0.00 5.77 172.9
4 26 67.30 42.50 0.00 6.71 179.6
4 27 61.70 48.50 0.00 5.32 184.9
4 28 70.90 48.60 0.00 9.90 194.8
4 29 57.40 51.80 0.00 4.60 199.4
4 30 67.50 47.20 0.01 7.80 207.2
5 1 79.30 39.30 0.00 11.72 219.0
5 2 85.60 43.70 0.00 15.70 234.7 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
5 3 89.00 62.10 0.00 25.47 260.1
5 4 76.40 54.70 0.11 15.55 275.7
5 5 69.20 45.90 0.00 8.29 284.0 Hx Hn
5 6 76.30 52.00 0.00 14.15 298.1
5 7 81.00 52.90 0.00 16.95 315.1
5 8 77.50 54.30 0.00 15.90 331.0
5 9 65.20 46.30 0.00 6.46 337.4
5 10 72.00 38.60 0.00 8.24 345.7 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
5 11 80.90 46.10 0.00 14.06 359.7 Vx Vn
5 12 83.10 57.50 0.00 20.30 380.0
5 13 77.80 47.80 0.00 13.05 393.1
5 14 68.40 53.70 0.10 11.05 404.1
5 15 59.60 51.20 0.04 5.40 409.5
5 16 71.10 51.10 0.03 11.10 420.6
5 17 75.90 49.00 0.00 12.53 433.2
5 18 81.00 59.20 0.00 20.10 453.3
5 19 66.20 49.50 0.00 7.89 461.1 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
5 20 62.00 43.90 0.00 4.51 465.7
5 21 62.70 45.90 0.03 5.18 470.8
5 22 67.80 52.60 0.00 10.20 481.0
5 23 70.50 51.50 0.00 11.00 492.0 Vx
5 24 70.80 51.20 0.00 11.00 503.0
5 25 74.50 52.00 0.00 13.25 516.3
5 26 69.40 52.40 0.00 10.90 527.2
5 27 66.90 49.00 0.00 8.05 535.2 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5 28 71.90 47.50 0.00 10.04 545.3
5 29 75.60 54.60 0.00 15.10 560.4
5 30 73.40 47.40 0.00 10.75 571.1
5 31 81.30 44.70 0.00 13.87 585.0
6 1 82.40 51.40 0.00 16.90 601.9
6 2 76.80 64.20 0.00 20.50 622.4
6 3 84.70 57.50 0.00 21.10 643.5
6 4 90.90 52.90 0.00 21.56 665.1 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6 5 92.60 55.50 0.00 23.35 688.4
6 6 99.80 64.50 0.00 29.15 717.6 Vx
6 7 97.80 64.50 0.00 28.82 746.4
6 8 89.90 69.60 0.00 29.50 775.9 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
6 9 79.70 59.60 0.00 19.65 795.5
6 10 69.80 53.00 0.06 11.40 806.9
6 11 71.50 50.90 0.00 11.20 818.1
6 12 81.40 48.40 0.00 15.05 833.2
6 13 75.80 52.90 0.00 14.35 847.5
6 14 70.90 51.20 0.00 11.05 858.6
6 15 71.50 48.20 0.00 10.06 868.6
6 16 70.60 49.00 0.02 9.89 878.5
6 17 78.20 46.50 0.00 12.85 891.4
6 18 68.00 54.60 0.14 11.30 902.7
6 19 76.50 43.90 0.00 11.34 914.0
6 20 81.50 46.80 0.00 14.57 928.6 Vx 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
6 21 80.00 56.20 0.00 18.10 946.7
6 22 84.30 50.20 0.00 17.25 963.9
6 23 79.00 61.30 0.00 20.15 984.1 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
6 24 71.00 52.90 0.02 11.95 996.0
6 25 79.60 52.40 0.00 16.00 1012.0
6 26 87.00 50.10 0.00 18.55 1030.6
6 27 89.30 52.10 0.00 20.60 1051.2
6 28 90.70 63.60 0.00 26.78 1078.0
6 29 88.30 60.80 0.00 24.54 1102.5
6 30 87.90 63.50 0.00 25.70 1128.2
7 1 86.70 58.50 0.00 22.60 1150.8
7 2 88.20 62.20 0.00 25.19 1176.0 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
7 3 85.60 67.70 0.00 26.65 1202.6
7 4 81.70 56.00 0.00 18.85 1221.5
7 5 78.30 55.70 0.00 17.00 1238.5
7 6 77.70 59.70 0.00 18.70 1257.2
7 7 76.80 55.00 0.00 15.90 1273.1
7 8 71.50 59.00 0.15 15.25 1288.3
7 9 76.00 56.50 0.15 16.25 1304.6
7 10 65.70 56.60 0.00 11.15 1315.7
7 11 76.30 58.20 0.00 17.25 1333.0
7 12 75.00 57.30 0.04 16.15 1349.1
7 13 80.30 59.90 0.00 20.10 1369.2
7 14 84.70 54.10 0.00 19.40 1388.6
7 15 79.30 57.00 0.00 18.15 1406.8
7 16 80.30 59.70 0.00 20.00 1426.8
7 17 84.80 56.00 0.00 20.40 1447.2
7 18 78.90 58.60 0.00 18.75 1465.9
7 19 78.00 60.10 0.00 19.05 1485.0 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
7 20 79.80 60.00 0.00 19.90 1504.9
7 21 87.70 53.40 0.00 20.55 1525.4
7 22 80.00 64.10 0.00 22.05 1547.5
7 23 79.80 56.20 0.00 18.00 1565.5
7 24 86.10 52.20 0.00 19.15 1584.6
7 25 96.70 57.90 0.00 25.51 1610.2 Vx 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
7 26 90.00 69.00 0.00 29.24 1639.4
7 27 89.60 65.90 0.00 27.57 1667.0
7 28 92.10 63.60 0.00 27.18 1694.1
7 29 94.00 64.10 0.00 27.88 1722.0
7 30 92.10 70.00 0.00 30.29 1752.3
7 31 86.10 61.60 0.00 23.85 1776.2 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
8 1 90.60 57.30 0.00 23.64 1799.8 Vx
8 2 80.80 58.10 0.00 19.45 1819.3
8 3 79.80 57.60 0.00 18.70 1838.0
8 4 89.40 52.60 0.00 20.88 1858.8
8 5 90.90 55.20 0.00 22.70 1881.5
8 6 88.90 62.20 0.00 25.48 1907.0
8 7 84.70 58.20 0.00 21.45 1928.5
8 8 77.90 55.00 0.00 16.45 1944.9 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
8 9 72.80 54.90 0.00 13.85 1958.8
8 10 84.60 57.10 0.00 20.85 1979.6
8 11 92.80 52.10 0.00 21.74 2001.4
8 12 91.70 54.80 0.00 22.75 2024.1
8 13 91.80 55.20 0.00 22.97 2047.1
8 14 91.00 60.90 0.00 25.54 2072.6
8 15 95.70 60.70 0.00 26.63 2099.3 Vx
8 16 90.80 59.90 0.00 24.99 2124.2 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
8 17 88.90 62.40 0.00 25.58 2149.8
8 18 89.10 60.00 0.00 24.46 2174.3
8 19 85.40 56.20 0.00 20.80 2195.1
8 20 90.00 55.20 0.00 22.40 2217.5 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
8 21 92.20 64.00 0.00 27.40 2244.9
8 22 77.50 55.60 0.00 16.55 2261.4
8 23 80.80 51.20 0.00 16.00 2277.4
8 24 86.90 52.20 0.00 19.55 2297.0 Vx
8 25 86.60 50.90 0.00 18.75 2315.7 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
8 26 88.30 51.50 0.00 19.89 2335.6
8 27 90.90 70.00 0.00 29.98 2365.6
8 28 89.10 63.80 0.00 26.35 2392.0 Vx
8 29 91.90 53.80 0.00 22.31 2414.3 Vx
8 30 77.70 59.70 0.00 18.70 2433.0
8 31 82.60 57.60 0.00 20.10 2453.1
9 1 76.60 58.90 0.00 17.75 2470.8
9 2 74.00 53.30 0.02 13.65 2484.5
9 3 71.70 56.90 0.00 14.30 2498.8
9 4 73.10 44.60 0.00 9.87 2508.6
9 5 74.70 50.80 0.00 12.75 2521.4 Vx
9 6 65.70 56.40 0.07 11.05 2532.4
9 7 77.50 55.90 0.00 16.70 2549.1 Vx
9 8 75.70 57.80 0.00 16.75 2565.9
9 9 76.10 49.90 0.00 13.00 2578.9
9 10 85.50 46.10 0.00 16.33 2595.2
9 11 75.70 56.00 0.00 15.85 2611.1 Vx
9 12 72.20 43.70 0.00 9.24 2620.3
9 13 71.30 37.80 0.00 7.80 2628.1
9 14 77.50 45.10 0.00 12.12 2640.2
9 15 82.80 48.10 0.00 15.64 2655.9
9 16 87.40 50.20 0.00 18.80 2674.7
9 17 72.80 64.30 0.00 18.55 2693.2
9 18 73.00 59.90 0.01 16.45 2709.7
9 19 68.20 58.10 0.00 13.15 2722.8 Vx
9 20 71.00 47.10 0.00 9.48 2732.3
9 21 67.30 40.80 0.00 6.44 2738.7
9 22 58.30 47.60 0.02 3.44 2742.2
9 23 70.00 52.70 0.00 11.35 2753.5
9 24 70.20 51.10 0.00 10.65 2764.2
9 25 80.70 48.10 0.00 14.60 2778.8
9 26 79.70 46.80 0.00 13.68 2792.5
9 27 81.70 58.00 0.00 19.85 2812.3
9 28 73.80 49.70 0.00 11.76 2824.1
9 29 76.00 47.70 0.02 12.13 2836.2
9 30 74.80 53.40 0.00 14.10 2850.3
10 1 69.20 48.80 0.00 9.12 2859.4
10 2 65.20 40.40 0.00 5.45 2864.9
10 3 67.20 45.90 0.00 7.33 2872.2
10 4 64.70 46.70 0.02 6.31 2878.5
10 5 63.00 48.70 0.00 6.02 2884.5
10 6 65.20 50.50 0.00 7.85 2892.4
10 7 64.00 54.10 0.03 9.05 2901.4 Vx
10 8 75.90 49.40 0.01 12.69 2914.1
10 9 65.40 59.90 0.00 12.65 2926.8
10 10 61.00 47.90 0.06 4.81 2931.6
10 11 58.00 37.20 0.00 2.20 2933.8
10 12 57.20 30.80 0.00 1.64 2935.4
10 13 61.70 43.20 0.15 4.27 2939.7
10 14 68.70 51.50 0.28 10.10 2949.8
10 15 61.50 50.20 0.00 5.85 2955.6
10 16 64.10 49.70 0.00 6.92 2962.6
10 17 62.90 48.00 0.00 5.77 2968.3 Vx
10 18 59.70 45.70 0.00 3.75 2972.1
10 19 65.40 41.60 0.00 5.70 2977.8
10 20 68.90 56.40 0.00 12.65 2990.4
10 21 56.70 50.30 0.00 3.50 2993.9
10 22 62.10 43.30 0.00 4.47 2998.4 Vx
10 23 56.50 40.40 0.00 1.83 3000.2
10 24 59.40 44.20 0.00 3.39 3003.6
10 25 66.50 47.20 0.00 7.31 3010.9
10 26 55.00 51.40 0.00 3.20 3014.1
10 27 55.80 50.60 0.00 3.20 3017.3 Vx
10 28 61.30 45.50 0.00 4.45 3021.8
10 29 49.50 45.50 0.00 0.00 3021.8
10 30 50.10 43.20 0.00 0.01 3021.8
10 31 59.30 48.10 0.00 4.04 3025.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22700 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth revised 07 model - Knight 2007Location: 2016 MF22700 Blue Mt Cherry Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-16 | 235 | 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight |
| 5-10-16 | 346 | 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight |
| 5-19-16 | 461 | 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight |
| 5-27-16 | 535 | 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight |
| 6-4-16 | 665 | 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
| 6-8-16 | 776 | 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight |
| 6-20-16 | 929 | 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight |
| 6-23-16 | 984 | 2nd generation: 5% moth flight |
| 7-2-16 | 1176 | 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight |
| 7-19-16 | 1485 | 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight |
| 7-25-16 | 1610 | 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight |
| 7-31-16 | 1776 | 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight |
| 8-8-16 | 1945 | 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight |
| 8-16-16 | 2124 | 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight |
| 8-20-16 | 2217 | 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight |
| 8-25-16 | 2316 | 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight |
![degree-day graph of codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear] Knight 2007](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2908849)
