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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner and Hoyt 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: Fully tested and in use
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 250 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
2. 360 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
3. 484 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4. 610 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5. 800 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6. 1000 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
7. 1260 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
8. 1460 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
9. 1580 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
10. 1750 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
11. 2100 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
12. 2220 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
13. 2430 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
14. 2620 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF23325 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Bixby OR Lat45.9681 Long:-118.4325 Elev:846
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 75.20 48.60 0.00 12.04 12.0 * START *
4 11 78.10 45.10 0.00 12.41 24.5
4 12 68.50 51.20 0.02 9.85 34.3
4 13 65.30 48.30 0.01 7.03 41.3
4 14 62.50 42.60 0.02 4.55 45.9
4 15 67.70 45.90 0.00 7.57 53.4
4 16 72.70 36.70 0.00 8.28 61.7
4 17 78.00 36.80 0.00 10.68 72.4
4 18 81.30 38.40 0.00 12.49 84.9
4 19 84.70 41.50 0.00 14.73 99.6
4 20 87.10 41.90 0.00 15.98 115.6
4 21 79.30 51.50 0.00 15.40 131.0
4 22 77.50 52.50 0.00 15.00 146.0
4 23 71.50 53.30 0.00 12.40 158.4
4 24 66.80 50.90 0.00 8.85 167.3
4 25 67.00 40.30 0.00 6.23 173.5
4 26 66.70 42.60 0.00 6.45 179.9
4 27 61.70 47.80 0.02 5.13 185.1
4 28 71.30 49.10 0.00 10.28 195.3
4 29 58.30 51.00 0.00 4.65 200.0
4 30 69.40 47.90 0.01 8.93 208.9
5 1 79.20 38.10 0.00 11.45 220.4
5 2 85.70 42.20 0.00 15.38 235.8
5 3 89.70 53.70 0.00 21.54 257.3 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
5 4 80.10 57.00 0.09 18.55 275.9
5 5 69.20 45.40 0.00 8.18 284.0 Hx Hn
5 6 77.30 51.40 0.00 14.35 298.4
5 7 84.40 51.50 0.00 17.95 316.3
5 8 77.20 54.20 0.00 15.70 332.0
5 9 65.00 46.30 0.00 6.36 338.4
5 10 72.50 36.30 0.00 8.13 346.5
5 11 81.10 46.00 0.00 14.13 360.7 Vx Vn 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
5 12 85.80 63.10 0.00 24.45 385.1
5 13 83.00 44.80 0.00 14.73 399.8
5 14 67.70 52.90 0.10 10.30 410.1
5 15 58.80 52.00 0.04 5.40 415.5
5 16 75.00 52.30 0.03 13.65 429.2
5 17 81.00 48.40 0.00 14.85 444.0
5 18 83.00 57.30 0.00 20.15 464.2
5 19 66.40 49.50 0.00 7.99 472.2
5 20 63.10 43.30 0.00 4.92 477.1
5 21 64.50 46.60 0.00 6.19 483.3
5 22 69.00 53.30 0.00 11.15 494.4 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
5 23 70.60 51.30 0.00 10.95 505.4 Vx
5 24 74.70 51.50 0.00 13.10 518.5
5 25 82.10 51.20 0.00 16.65 535.1
5 26 71.70 53.80 0.00 12.75 547.9
5 27 67.90 51.00 0.00 9.45 557.3
5 28 74.00 48.70 0.00 11.48 568.8
5 29 78.80 54.90 0.00 16.85 585.6
5 30 78.40 46.70 0.00 13.01 598.7
5 31 85.50 42.00 0.00 15.23 613.9 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
6 1 83.00 49.90 0.00 16.45 630.3
6 2 76.80 65.00 0.00 20.90 651.2
6 3 86.60 56.80 0.00 21.70 672.9
6 4 95.20 51.50 0.00 22.09 695.0
6 5 94.90 54.10 0.00 23.27 718.3
6 6 99.90 60.30 0.00 27.24 745.5 Vx
6 7 91.80 63.30 0.00 26.95 772.5
6 8 85.60 67.30 0.00 26.45 798.9
6 9 77.90 59.00 0.00 18.45 817.4 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6 10 68.70 53.80 0.00 11.25 828.6
6 11 70.70 49.20 0.00 10.02 838.7
6 12 76.80 46.50 0.00 12.16 850.8
6 13 73.30 52.10 0.00 12.70 863.5
6 14 70.40 51.70 0.00 11.05 874.6
6 15 69.80 47.20 0.00 8.92 883.5
6 16 72.00 45.90 0.00 9.65 893.1
6 17 76.80 45.40 0.00 11.86 905.0
6 18 68.80 55.50 0.00 12.15 917.2
6 19 78.30 42.70 0.00 11.93 929.1
6 20 81.60 47.60 0.00 14.87 944.0 Vx
6 21 80.50 56.80 0.00 18.65 962.6
6 22 85.00 47.40 0.00 16.49 979.1
6 23 81.10 60.50 0.00 20.80 999.9
6 24 70.70 54.10 0.01 12.40 1012.3 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
6 25 79.70 51.30 0.00 15.50 1027.8
6 26 86.20 48.60 0.00 17.51 1045.3
6 27 93.70 60.50 0.00 26.08 1071.4 Vx Vn
6 28 90.70 62.10 0.00 26.04 1097.4
6 29 94.60 60.40 0.00 26.24 1123.7 Vx
6 30 90.50 66.00 0.00 27.91 1151.6 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 26.17 1177.8 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.00 0.00 26.27 1204.0 Vx Vn
7 3 85.80 64.90 0.00 25.35 1229.4 Vx Vn
7 4 81.50 53.00 0.00 17.25 1246.6
7 5 79.30 53.20 0.00 16.25 1262.9 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
7 6 79.00 58.80 0.00 18.90 1281.8
7 7 81.70 54.50 0.00 18.10 1299.9 Vx
7 8 78.00 60.50 0.02 19.25 1319.1 Vx
7 9 77.00 57.70 0.00 17.35 1336.5
7 10 68.00 58.90 0.00 13.45 1349.9
7 11 81.00 59.60 0.00 20.30 1370.2 Vx
7 12 76.80 56.70 0.00 16.75 1387.0
7 13 83.50 58.10 0.00 20.80 1407.8 Vx
7 14 89.90 53.30 0.00 21.42 1429.2 Vx
7 15 81.60 55.80 0.00 18.70 1447.9 Vx
7 16 83.90 59.70 0.00 21.80 1469.7 Vx 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
7 17 88.30 54.60 0.00 21.44 1491.1 Vx
7 18 81.00 59.80 0.00 20.40 1511.5 Vx
7 19 79.50 59.70 0.00 19.60 1531.1 Vx
7 20 87.60 59.10 0.00 23.35 1554.5 Vx
7 21 95.30 54.60 0.00 23.61 1578.1 Vx
7 22 83.00 64.90 0.00 23.95 1602.0 Vx Vn 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
7 23 85.70 54.70 0.00 20.20 1622.2
7 24 90.30 52.40 0.00 21.11 1643.3 Vx
7 25 96.80 55.60 0.00 24.43 1667.8 Vx
7 26 96.00 72.60 0.00 32.24 1700.0 Vx Vn
7 27 96.00 65.50 0.00 28.96 1729.0
7 28 97.00 62.60 0.00 27.79 1756.8 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
7 29 101.90 63.30 0.00 28.91 1785.7 Vx
7 30 94.80 70.40 0.00 31.03 1816.7 Vx
7 31 87.10 65.00 0.00 26.05 1842.8 Vx
8 1 91.00 56.70 0.00 23.47 1866.2 Vx Vn
8 2 78.60 61.80 0.00 20.20 1886.4 Vx Vn
8 3 84.20 53.40 0.00 18.80 1905.2 Vx
8 4 93.00 50.80 0.00 21.16 1926.4 Vx Vn
8 5 94.30 52.50 0.00 22.35 1948.7 Vx
8 6 82.70 57.70 0.00 20.20 1968.9
8 7 83.00 59.00 0.00 21.00 1989.9 Vx
8 8 75.00 53.40 0.00 14.20 2004.1
8 9 72.40 55.90 0.00 14.15 2018.3
8 10 84.60 56.20 0.00 20.40 2038.7 Vx
8 11 90.50 57.60 0.00 23.76 2062.4 Vx Vn
8 12 95.90 61.30 0.00 26.96 2089.4 Vx Vn
8 13 97.90 65.50 0.00 29.30 2118.7 Vx Vn 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
8 14 95.80 70.60 0.00 31.29 2150.0 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 63.00 0.00 27.78 2177.8 Vx Vn
8 16 91.40 60.80 0.00 25.61 2203.4
8 17 91.80 60.70 0.00 25.68 2229.1 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
8 18 96.90 58.70 0.00 25.93 2255.0 Vx
8 19 88.60 55.60 0.00 22.07 2277.1
8 20 90.10 51.00 0.00 20.34 2297.4
8 21 92.20 59.20 0.00 25.06 2322.5
8 22 78.90 53.70 0.00 16.30 2338.8
8 23 82.30 48.40 0.00 15.50 2354.3
8 24 87.00 50.80 0.00 18.90 2373.2 Vx
8 25 84.90 49.90 0.00 17.40 2390.6
8 26 88.00 48.50 0.00 18.37 2408.9
8 27 88.10 66.80 0.00 27.45 2436.4 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
8 28 89.40 65.80 0.00 27.45 2463.8 Vx
8 29 92.10 54.40 0.00 22.67 2486.5 Vx
8 30 79.60 59.40 0.00 19.50 2506.0
8 31 81.50 54.10 0.00 17.80 2523.8
9 1 76.60 59.30 0.00 17.95 2541.8
9 2 74.20 55.20 0.00 14.70 2556.5
9 3 72.20 55.90 0.00 14.05 2570.5
9 4 72.60 43.70 0.00 9.43 2579.9
9 5 74.80 50.10 0.00 12.45 2592.4 Vx
9 6 65.20 56.30 0.00 10.75 2603.1
9 7 76.40 57.20 0.00 16.80 2619.9
9 8 77.00 58.00 0.00 17.50 2637.4 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
9 9 77.40 45.70 0.00 12.23 2649.7
9 10 84.80 43.30 0.00 15.21 2664.9
9 11 76.00 54.10 0.00 15.05 2679.9
9 12 73.30 43.20 0.00 9.65 2689.6 Vx
9 13 70.20 35.90 0.00 7.07 2696.7
9 14 77.60 43.00 0.00 11.66 2708.3
9 15 81.00 46.40 0.00 14.20 2722.5
9 16 81.40 47.60 0.00 14.77 2737.3
9 17 70.70 61.90 0.00 16.30 2753.6
9 18 72.20 58.00 0.00 15.10 2768.7
9 19 68.30 57.80 0.00 13.05 2781.7 Vx
9 20 69.50 48.40 0.00 9.14 2790.9
9 21 67.50 40.40 0.00 6.47 2797.4 Vx
9 22 58.20 46.10 0.00 3.12 2800.5
9 23 67.10 49.50 0.00 8.34 2808.8
9 24 70.60 52.50 0.00 11.55 2820.4
9 25 80.90 44.90 0.00 13.73 2834.1
9 26 83.10 46.30 0.00 15.20 2849.3 Vx
9 27 82.90 53.90 0.00 18.40 2867.7
9 28 75.80 48.10 0.00 12.16 2879.9
9 29 77.10 46.10 0.00 12.19 2892.1
9 30 73.20 52.20 0.00 12.70 2904.8
10 1 70.00 46.70 0.00 8.88 2913.6
10 2 66.50 37.10 0.00 5.61 2919.3
10 3 68.30 44.50 0.00 7.55 2926.8
10 4 66.20 43.60 0.00 6.39 2933.2
10 5 65.90 49.10 0.00 7.59 2940.8
10 6 65.50 51.20 0.00 8.35 2949.1
10 7 64.10 54.50 0.01 9.30 2958.4 Vx
10 8 73.20 48.40 0.00 10.97 2969.4
10 9 65.70 56.20 0.00 10.95 2980.4
10 10 61.70 49.10 0.00 5.50 2985.9
10 11 57.80 36.00 0.00 2.06 2987.9
10 12 57.30 28.80 0.00 1.61 2989.5
10 13 61.90 41.80 0.01 4.18 2993.7
10 14 68.20 51.30 0.01 9.75 3003.5
10 15 59.60 49.50 0.02 4.60 3008.1
10 16 64.80 48.90 0.00 6.97 3015.0
10 17 63.20 49.20 0.00 6.28 3021.3 Vx
10 18 59.50 46.50 0.00 3.79 3025.1
10 19 63.10 40.60 0.00 4.55 3029.7
10 20 68.00 56.20 0.00 12.10 3041.8
10 21 56.20 51.30 0.00 3.75 3045.5
10 22 61.20 41.30 0.00 3.82 3049.3
10 23 56.40 42.00 0.00 1.91 3051.2
10 24 59.50 43.00 0.00 3.28 3054.5 Vx
10 25 64.90 47.30 0.00 6.56 3061.1
10 26 55.20 52.40 0.00 3.80 3064.9
10 27 55.90 50.20 0.00 3.05 3067.9 Vx
10 28 57.50 41.20 0.00 2.28 3070.2 Vx
10 29 48.70 46.40 0.00 0.00 3070.2
10 30 48.90 44.40 0.00 0.00 3070.2
10 31 57.00 46.60 0.04 2.66 3072.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF23325 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth model - Brunner and Hoyt 1987Location: 2016 MF23325 Brown Bixby OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-3-16 | 257 | 1st generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 5-11-16 | 361 | 1st generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 5-22-16 | 494 | 1st generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 5-31-16 | 614 | 1st generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 6-9-16 | 817 | 1st generation, 95% egg hatch |
| 6-24-16 | 1012 | 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence |
| 7-5-16 | 1263 | 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch |
| 7-16-16 | 1470 | 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch |
| 7-22-16 | 1602 | 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 7-28-16 | 1757 | 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 8-13-16 | 2119 | 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch |
| 8-17-16 | 2229 | 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 8-27-16 | 2436 | 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 9-8-16 | 2637 | 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of codling moth [apple & pear] Brunner and Hoyt 1987](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2288625)
