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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF22663 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burlinggame Lefore OR Lat45.9592 Long:-118.3756 Elev:925
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 70.50 51.20 0.00 10.85 10.9 * START *
5 27 68.30 50.50 0.00 9.40 20.2
5 28 76.30 48.80 0.00 12.66 32.9
5 29 78.70 55.30 0.00 17.00 49.9
5 30 75.90 50.60 0.00 13.25 63.2 Vx OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 84.40 46.70 0.00 15.97 79.1 Vx
6 1 84.00 52.30 0.00 18.15 97.3
6 2 75.70 62.00 0.00 18.85 116.1
6 3 85.80 57.70 0.00 21.75 137.9
6 4 92.60 51.70 0.00 21.49 159.4
6 5 92.90 56.40 0.00 23.88 183.2
6 6 99.00 65.60 0.00 29.52 212.8 Vx
6 7 97.00 65.70 0.00 29.24 242.0 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 8 86.50 66.90 0.00 26.70 268.7
6 9 76.90 58.20 0.00 17.55 286.2
6 10 70.50 52.70 0.04 11.60 297.8
6 11 74.00 48.90 0.00 11.55 309.4
6 12 79.50 46.50 0.00 13.49 322.9
6 13 74.70 54.30 0.00 14.50 337.4 Vx
6 14 70.00 50.40 0.00 10.20 347.6
6 15 69.00 48.30 0.00 8.86 356.4 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 16 67.90 47.00 0.02 7.94 364.4
6 17 77.10 46.60 0.00 12.34 376.7
6 18 59.00 54.70 0.07 6.85 383.6
6 19 73.40 46.80 0.00 10.58 394.1
6 20 79.60 47.20 0.00 13.75 407.9
6 21 80.70 58.40 0.00 19.55 427.4
6 22 85.80 50.10 0.00 17.95 445.4
6 23 81.10 58.70 0.00 19.90 465.3
6 24 74.50 54.20 0.01 14.35 479.6
6 25 80.70 49.90 0.00 15.30 494.9
6 26 90.80 49.20 0.00 19.74 514.7 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 27 93.30 56.90 0.00 24.23 538.9 Vx
6 28 86.00 64.60 0.02 25.30 564.2
6 29 94.40 66.20 0.00 28.97 593.2 Vx
6 30 91.80 66.20 0.00 28.37 621.6 Vx Vn
7 1 88.90 60.50 0.00 24.63 646.2 Vx
7 2 89.90 62.70 0.00 26.09 672.3 Vx
7 3 85.40 67.00 0.00 26.20 698.5 Vx 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 4 80.30 57.30 0.00 18.80 717.3 Vx Vn
7 5 78.70 55.00 0.00 16.85 734.1
7 6 80.70 61.00 0.00 20.85 755.0
7 7 81.30 56.80 0.00 19.05 774.0 Vx
7 8 77.70 59.70 0.16 18.70 792.7 Vx
7 9 77.70 57.60 0.07 17.65 810.4
7 10 67.80 57.30 0.00 12.55 822.9
7 11 80.50 58.70 0.00 19.60 842.5 Vx Vn
7 12 80.00 56.80 0.01 18.40 860.9
7 13 83.70 57.10 0.00 20.40 881.3
7 14 89.60 57.60 0.00 23.45 904.8 Vx
7 15 81.20 56.90 0.00 19.05 923.8 Vx
7 16 83.50 58.50 0.00 21.00 944.8 Vx
7 17 87.80 59.80 0.00 23.80 968.6 Vx
7 18 80.60 59.70 0.00 20.15 988.8 Vx
7 19 80.00 60.00 0.00 20.00 1008.8
7 20 87.40 61.70 0.00 24.55 1033.3 Vx
7 21 95.10 55.60 0.00 24.05 1057.4 Vx
7 22 82.80 63.30 0.00 23.05 1080.4 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 23 83.90 57.00 0.00 20.45 1100.9 Vx
7 24 90.00 56.20 0.00 22.89 1123.8 Vx
7 25 96.60 63.60 0.00 28.18 1151.9 Vx
7 26 95.20 71.40 0.00 31.56 1183.5 Vx
7 27 95.00 69.20 0.00 30.51 1214.0 Vx Vn
7 28 99.10 67.70 0.00 30.49 1244.5 Vx
7 29 101.50 69.60 0.00 31.64 1276.1 Vx
7 30 94.50 71.70 0.00 31.58 1307.7 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
7 31 86.50 59.70 0.00 23.10 1330.8
8 1 90.70 57.30 0.00 23.67 1354.5 Vx Vn
8 2 78.70 62.60 0.00 20.65 1375.1
8 3 83.70 56.60 0.00 20.15 1395.3 Vx
8 4 92.80 55.40 0.00 23.36 1418.7 Vx Vn
8 5 93.50 60.80 0.00 26.18 1444.8 Vx
8 6 88.40 63.80 0.00 26.08 1470.9
8 7 82.80 62.10 0.00 22.45 1493.4 Vx
8 8 77.50 53.90 0.00 15.70 1509.1 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 9 74.00 56.00 0.02 15.00 1524.1
8 10 84.00 56.00 0.00 20.00 1544.1 Vx
8 11 90.00 57.50 0.00 23.54 1567.6 Vx Vn
8 12 95.50 56.00 0.00 24.33 1591.9 Vx
8 13 97.00 65.10 0.00 28.96 1620.9 Vx Vn
8 14 95.50 69.80 0.00 30.87 1651.8 Vx Vn
8 15 95.70 63.30 0.00 27.87 1679.6 Vx Vn
8 16 95.40 61.20 0.06 26.81 1706.4 Vx
8 17 94.90 62.80 0.04 27.46 1733.9 Vx
8 18 96.40 65.90 0.00 29.22 1763.1 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 19 86.20 60.40 0.02 23.30 1786.4
8 20 81.20 57.90 0.09 19.55 1806.0
8 21 94.40 59.70 0.00 25.86 1831.8
8 22 78.60 56.00 0.00 17.30 1849.1
8 23 82.90 52.50 0.00 17.70 1866.8
8 24 86.90 58.60 0.00 22.75 1889.6 Vx
8 25 89.10 53.60 0.00 21.27 1910.8
8 26 91.20 57.20 0.00 23.78 1934.6
8 27 89.40 67.80 0.00 28.45 1963.1
8 28 89.00 64.00 0.04 26.41 1989.5 Vx
8 29 94.20 57.00 0.00 24.51 2014.0 Vx
8 30 79.70 62.40 0.00 21.05 2035.0
8 31 84.70 58.00 0.00 21.35 2056.4
9 1 78.20 60.60 0.00 19.40 2075.8
9 2 74.60 55.30 0.00 14.95 2090.7
9 3 72.90 56.70 0.00 14.80 2105.5
9 4 76.00 47.90 0.00 12.20 2117.7
9 5 74.60 49.90 0.00 12.25 2130.0 Vx
9 6 63.70 55.50 0.03 9.60 2139.6
9 7 78.70 56.10 0.00 17.40 2157.0
9 8 79.50 58.90 0.00 19.20 2176.2
9 9 79.30 47.40 0.00 13.67 2189.9
9 10 88.90 49.40 0.00 19.12 2209.0
9 11 77.50 57.80 0.00 17.65 2226.6
9 12 75.00 44.20 0.00 10.69 2237.3 Vx
9 13 70.80 42.10 0.00 8.26 2245.6 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 14 80.90 47.30 0.00 14.43 2260.0
9 15 83.20 50.10 0.00 16.65 2276.7
9 16 88.80 54.60 0.00 21.65 2298.3
9 17 70.60 62.70 0.01 16.65 2315.0
9 18 72.30 59.40 0.00 15.85 2330.8
9 19 67.90 58.30 0.00 13.10 2343.9 Vx
9 20 68.90 49.50 0.00 9.23 2353.1
9 21 64.70 44.40 0.00 5.84 2359.0
9 22 58.00 49.20 0.00 3.70 2362.7
9 23 67.10 51.70 0.00 9.40 2372.1
9 24 71.20 51.70 0.00 11.45 2383.5
9 25 83.00 48.50 0.00 15.88 2399.4
9 26 82.40 48.70 0.00 15.66 2415.1 Vx
9 27 86.40 59.70 0.00 23.05 2438.1
9 28 75.60 51.50 0.00 13.55 2451.7
9 29 78.50 50.20 0.00 14.35 2466.0
9 30 73.50 51.40 0.00 12.45 2478.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22663 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF22663 Burlinggame Lefore OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-30-16 | 63 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
| 6-7-16 | 242 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
| 6-15-16 | 356 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
| 6-26-16 | 515 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
| 7-3-16 | 698 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
| 7-22-16 | 1080 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
| 7-30-16 | 1308 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
| 8-8-16 | 1509 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
| 8-18-16 | 1763 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
| 9-13-16 | 2246 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |
![degree-day graph of peach twig borer [stone fruits] 2007 USU Ext.](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1269780)
